Unicaja Banco has published the issue number 110 of the report ‘Previsiones Económicas de Andalucía’ (Economic Forecasts for Andalusia), prepared, as in previous editions, by Analistas Económicos de Andalucía.
This report prepared by the research company of Grupo Unicaja Banco is divided into four sections: 1) Economic environment; 2) Recent evolution of the Andalusian economy; and 3) Economic outlook for Andalusia 2023 and 2024 and 4) Provincial analysis.
The first section describes the international and national context and its recent evolution. The second section analyses the situation of the Andalusian economy, with special focus on the evolution of the main indicators, according to the region’s productive structure. The third section includes forecasts on the evolution of the GDP and employment in Andalusia for 2023 y 2024. Finally, the last section focuses on the analysis of the evolution and economic outlook of the Andalusian provinces.
Global and national economic environment
Although the slowdown in global activity for 2023 is confirmed compared to the previous year and inflationary pressures persist, in recent months there has been an improvement in the outlook, which has led the main international economic organizations to revise their projections. Thus, the OECD forecasts that in 2023 the world economy will register growth of 2.6%. On the other hand, despite the moderation in energy prices, the dynamics followed by prices suggest that core inflation will remain high.
In the specific case of the Spanish economy, it grew more than expected in 2022 as a whole, at a rate of 5.5%, with greater intensity in the first part of the year, with a good performance of the labor market. The latest available data, relating to the first quarter of 2023, show a quarter-on-quarter GDP variation of 0.5%, with the foreign sector acting as a support. In year-on-year terms, GDP recorded an increase of 3.8%, with the good performance of exports, especially tourism services, and the contribution of the construction and services sectors, on the supply side, standing out.
The latest projections published by the Bank of Spain point to a GDP increase of 1.6% for 2023, while growth in 2024 is estimated at over 2%.
Recent evolution of the Andalusian economy
According to the latest data from the Quarterly Regional Accounts of Andalusia, published by Instituto de Estadística y Cartografía de Andalucía (IECA), in the 2022 as a whole, the Andalusian economy posted a growth of 5.2%, 0.4 percentage points (p.p.) lower than that of 2021. The expansion of activity was based on both domestic and foreign demand, with a 15.3% increase in exports. On the supply side, the services sector led the GDP growth, with an increase of 6.6%.
In the first quarter of 2023, the Andalusian GDP grew by 0.7% quarter-on-quarter, above the national average (0.5%), due to the positive contribution of domestic demand, with an increase in household spending of 1.3%, which in the last quarter of 2022 recorded a fall of 0.2%. In year-on-year terms, growth was 3.6% (3.8% in Spain), allowing GDP to return to pre-pandemic levels. All components of demand have registered positive variations, with the contribution of the services sector standing out on the supply side.
With regard to the labor market, according to the information available, job creation has shown remarkable dynamism. Contribution to the Social Security scheme registered a year-on-year growth of 3% in the month of April.
Economic Outlook for Andalusia 2021-2022
The forecasts of Analistas Económicos de Andalucía indicate that in 2023 as a whole, the Andalusian GDP could grow by 1.3%, a rate that is similar to the Spanish average (1.4%). The number of employed persons (according to figures from the Labor Force Survey) is expected to increase by 0.8% on average for the year, based on the good performance of the industrial sector and, especially, the services sector. The number of unemployed would fall by 3.4%, bringing the unemployment rate to 18.4% on average for the year.
With regard to 2024, the first estimates of Analistas Económicos de Andalucía place the growth rate of the Andalusian economy at 2.1%, and at 1.3% for the number of employed persons, with an unemployment rate of 17.6% on average for the year.
However, these forecasts are subject to high uncertainty and sources of risk, which may push them downward in terms of economic activity and upward with respect to inflation. Among the main risks are geopolitical tensions from the war in Ukraine, tighter-than-expected financial conditions and persistent upward price dynamics.
Provincial analysis
In a breakdown of the analysis by provinces, according to the estimates of Analistas Económicos de Andalucía, in the fourth quarter 2022, the provinces of Malaga (4.1%), Seville (2.8%) and Cadiz (2.7%) would have recorded a year-on-year growth rate over the regional average (2.4%).
In 2022 as a whole, according to the Andalusia Annual Provincial Accounts, published by Instituto de Estadística y Cartografía de Andalucía, Malaga (7.7%), Cadiz (6.3%) and Almeria (5.6%) have led growth.
For 2023, Analistas Económicos de Andalucía forecasts growth rates range from 0.1% in Jaén to 2.2% in Málaga, with the province of Seville (2.0%) also growing above the regional average (1.3%).
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